Outlook: Nifty
Analyst: Dharmesh Shah – Head Technical
The weekly price action formed a small bull candle with higher high-low indicating an extension to the post-Budget rally, while broader markets outnumbered on expected lines. Going ahead, we reiterate our stance and expect the index to head towards 15,500 in the coming weeks as 161.8% external retracement of past two week’s fall (14,754-13,596) lead by strong momentum in cyclicals. The relative outperformance in smallcaps will accelerate in line with developed market peers. We believe the broader market will witness a catch up activity and outperform the benchmark index in the coming weeks.
Analyst: Dharmesh Shah – Head Technical
The weekly price action formed a small bull candle with higher high-low indicating an extension to the post-Budget rally, while broader markets outnumbered on expected lines. Going ahead, we reiterate our stance and expect the index to head towards 15,500 in the coming weeks as 161.8% external retracement of past two week’s fall (14,754-13,596) lead by strong momentum in cyclicals. The relative outperformance in smallcaps will accelerate in line with developed market peers. We believe the broader market will witness a catch up activity and outperform the benchmark index in the coming weeks.
Analyst: Dharmesh Shah – Head Technical
| Stock | Reco. | CMP | Target | Stop Loss | Note |
| Kotak Bank | Buy | 1,985 | 2,140 | 1,875 | Strong buying demand at 38.5% retracement of post budget rally indicates elevated support |
| Trent | Buy | 702 | 770 | 660 | At the cusp of breakout after forming resilient higher base above 50 DMA |
| United Breweries | Buy | 1,275 | 1,385 | 1,210 | Stock forming a higher base at the rising demand line joining lows since October 2020 and 10 weeks EMA thus provides favourable risk reward set up |
F&O Strategy
Analyst: Raj Deepak Singh – Head Derivatives
Buy Canara Bank
- CMP: Rs 162
- Target: Rs 175
- Stop loss: Rs 155
Rationale:
- For a couple of sessions, the Bank Nifty has been relatively outperforming the Nifty where buying is clearly visible in most private banks. However, after a sell-off from recent high, fresh buying interest has emerged in most PSU banks.
- On the option front, closure is visible in OTM Calls, which is a positive sign as we feel Call closure activity has started which will pull the stock higher.
Buy Tata Consumer Products
CMP: Rs 625
Target: Rs 675
Stop loss: Rs 598
Rationale:
- FMCG stocks have remained largely range bound in the last three to four months, while other sectors took the lead. However, Tata Consumer has exhibited strong outperformance compared to its peers.
- The stock has been witnessing accumulation near the support level of Rs 580 to Rs 600. With continued Put writing in 590 and 600 strikes, we expect downside risk to be limited. On the other hand, 620 Call strikes is already witnessing closure of positions suggesting upsides in the stock.
FX Strategy
Analyst: Raj Deepak Singh, Head Derivatives
Sell USD-INR at 72.95 – 73.00
- Target: 72.50
- Stop loss: 73.15
Rationale:
- INR managed to appreciate as sharp sell-off was seen in the Dollar index from recent high.
- It managed to close below its sizable Put base of 73 indicating another 40-50 paise move could be expected and its likely to move towards 72.5 levels.
| Resistances | 73.00 | 73.10 | 73.20 |
| Supports | 72.70 | 72.60 | 72.50 |
Buy EUR-INR at 88.10-88.20
- Target: 88.9
- Stop loss: 87.80
Rationale:
- After reverting sharply towards 1.20 levels, Euro managed to move towards 1.22 which helped EUR-INR pair to move higher
- EUR-INR pair is likely to consolidate with intermediate support now pegged at 87.80 levels whereas on the upside, it can move towards 89.
| Supports | 88.00 | 87.90 | 87.80 |
| Resistances | 88.50 | 88.70 | 88.90 |
