stock market outlook: Ahead of Market: 12 things that will decide stock action on Monday

NEW DELHI: After a gap down opening on Friday, Nifty rebounded to form a ‘Piercing Line’ pattern on the daily chart, which is a bullish reversal pattern formed at the lows and a ‘Hammer’ candle on the weekly chart.

Rohit Singre, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said, “Once Nifty crosses above 14,800 zone, bullish piercing pattern will get active and we may see a good move towards immediate hurdle zone of 14,900-15,000. Support is still seen at 14,650-14,580 zone. Holding above the said levels can be positive.”

That said, here’s a look at what some of the key indicators are suggesting for Monday’s action:


Wall Street ends mixed as Treasury yields pause
Nasdaq ended higher on Friday, lifted by Facebook and energy shares, while S&P 500 lost ground as US Treasury yields took a break from a recent surge. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.71% to end at 32,627.97 points, while the S&P 500 lost 0.06% to 3,913.1. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.76% to 13,215.24.

European shares end lower on lockdown worries
European stocks slid on Friday after France imposed fresh regional lockdowns to curb the spread of the coronavirus, amid concern over the pace of vaccination campaigns in some countries, while bank stocks led sectoral declines. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell 0.8%, with France’s CAC 40 dropping 1.1% after the nation imposed a new four-week lockdown from Friday in 16 regions badly hit by the COVID-19 crisis.

Tech View: Nifty signals bottom is in place
Analysts said Friday’s recovery came from the confluence of support levels, as the index almost retraced 62 per cent of its last leg of rally from the low of 13,596 to 15,431 level at the intraday low of 14,350. “Friday’s low was inside the bullish gap zone registered on February 2. If Nifty consistently trades above 14,475 level, then the probability of bottoming out at Friday’s low of 14,350 will remain high. A confirmation in this regard can be expected only on a close above the 15,051 level,” said Mazhar Mohammad of Chartviewindia.in.

Check out the candlestick formations in the latest trading sessions

candlestickETMarkets.com

F&O: Rising Put-Call ratio holds out hope
India VIX slipped marginally by 0.46% from 20.08 to 19.98 levels. VIX needs to cool down below 20 level for the bullish grip to continue and smoothen the move in the market. A lower VIX with a rising Put-Call Ratio indicate that the bulls may get some stability after losing ground over the past few sessions. On the options front, maximum Put Open Interest stood at 14,500 level followed by 14,000, while maximum Call OI was at 16,000 followed by 15,500. There was Call writing at 15,500 and 15,600 levels, while Put writing was seen at 14,500 and 14,400 levels. Options data suggested a wider trading range between 14,350 and 15,000 levels.

Stocks showing bullish bias
Momentum indicator Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) on Friday showed bullish trade setup on the counters of Welspun Corp, Berger Paints, Pidilite Industries, United Breweries, GFL, Gokul Refoils & Solvent, Dixon Technologies, Torrent Pharma, Metropolis Healthcare, Dalmia Bharat, Alicon Castalloy, Aster DM Healthcare, Nath Bio-Genes, Crisil, Privi Speciality Chemicals, STEL Holdings, Ind-Swift, AVG Logistics, Khaitan (India) and Rajdarshan Industries.

Stocks signalling weakness ahead
The MACD showed bearish signs on the counters of Power Finance Corporation, REC, JSW Energy, Zensar Technologies, Dhanlaxmi Bank, InterGlobe Aviation, Sundaram Fasteners, Vikas WSP, Man Industries, Advanced Enzyme Tech, CSB Bank, EID Parry, VIP Clothing, Royal Orchid Hotels, Vadilal Industries, Inspirisys Solutions, PG Electroplast and HB Stockholding.

Friday’s most active stocks
RIL (Rs 3,948.58 crore), Tata Motors (Rs 3,320.63 crore), ITC (Rs 2,977.70 crore), Bharti Airtel (Rs 2,581.78 crore), SBI (Rs 2,208.82 crore), TCS (Rs 1,761.36 crore), Tata Steel (Rs 1,759.90 crore), Bajaj Finance (Rs 1,713.43 crore), Infosys (Rs 1,711.12 crore) and ICICI Bank (Rs 1,687.26 crore) were among the most active stocks on Dalal Street on Friday in value terms.

Friday’s most active stocks in volume terms
Vodafone Idea (Shares traded: 21.92 crore), PNB (Shares traded: 13.60 crore), ITC (Shares traded: 13.42 crore), YES Bank (Shares traded: 13.34 crore), Tata Power (Shares traded: 11.90 crore), Tata Motors (Shares traded: 10.99 crore), BHEL (Shares traded: 10.81 crore), GTL Infra (Shares traded: 7.89 crore), NTPC (Shares traded: 7.22 crore) and IDFC First Bank (Shares traded: 6.58 crore) were among the most traded stocks in the session.

Stocks showing buying interest
Intellect Design, KPR Mill, Persistent Systems, Orchid Pharma and Cholamandalam Investment Finance witnessed strong buying interest from market participants as they scaled their fresh 52-week highs on Friday, signalling bullish sentiment.

Stocks seeing selling pressure
Future Retail, Stove Kraft, Valiant Organics, Silly Monks Entertainment, Novartis India, Asian Hotels (West), Generic Engineering and Global Education witnessed strong selling pressure in Friday’s session and hit their 52-week lows, signalling bearish sentiment on these counters.

Sentiment meter favours bulls
Overall, market breadth remained in favour of bulls. As many as 311 stocks on the BSE 500 index settled the day in green, while 186 settled the day in red.

Podcast: Should you look at grey market premium before applying for an IPO? >>>
Before applying for an IPO, most retail investors look at the grey market premium of the stock and the subscription numbers. Easy Trip Planners, which got listed on Friday, proved the futility of the exercise, as the stock had a weaker-than-expected listing despite commanding a hefty premium in the grey market and getting oversubscribed by 159 times. Gland Pharma was subscribed just 2 times last November, but is up around 70% from its issue price since listing. In today’s special podcast with independent market expert Rajiv Nagpal, we explore more about the connect or disconnect between grey market and Dalal Street so that you don’t burn your fingers in a much-hyped IPO.



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