Nifty’s Outlook
Analyst: Chandan Taparia, Derivative & Technical Analyst, MOFSL
Nifty index opened positive but failed to hold 15750 and declined sharply to 15450 levels in the initial half of the session on Friday. The latter part however saw good recovery from lower levels and the index closed above 15700 after covering the intraday losses. Technically, it formed a Bearish candle on a daily scale but presence of long lower shadow indicates that declines were quickly bought. Now, it has to hold above 15600 zones to witness an up move towards 15800 and 15900 zones while on the downside support can be seen at 15500 and 15450 zones.
DERIVATIVES
India VIX fell down by 3.22% from 15.28 to 14.79 levels. India VIX has come to the levels of Feb 2020 when it spiked to higher zones. Lower volatility indicates an overall bullish market bias but small bounce in VIX could give some volatile cues to the market. On option front, Maximum Put OI is at 15000 followed by 15500 strike while maximum Call OI is at 16000 followed by 15800 strike. Call writing is seen at 16200 then 15700 strike while minor Put writing is seen at 15000 then 15600 strike. Option data suggests a trading range in between 15400 to 16000 zones.
Bank Nifty opened positive but failed to hold above 34750 zones and drifted towards 33908 levels. The second half of the session saw buying interest at lower levels and the index closed with marginal loss of around 50 points. It formed a Bearish candle on daily scale with long lower shadow and continues to form lower highs – lower lows from the last two sessions. Now it has to hold above 34500 zones to move towards 35000 and 35250 zones while on the downside support exists at 34000-33900 levels.
NIFTY: BULL CALL SPREAD: +15750 CE – 15850 CE (24th June, 2021)
BUY 1 LOT OF 15750 CALL @ 85
SELL 1 LOT OF 15850 CALL @ 46
NET PREMIUM PAID: 39 POINTS
KEEP SL OF NET PREMIUM OF 13 POINTS: RISK OF 26 POINTS
KEEP TARGET OF NET PREMIUM OF 95 POINTS: REWARD OF 56 POINTS
RATIONALE
Major trend is positive and declines are being bought India VIX is sustaining at lower zones with hold in PCR OI suggesting an overall bullish undertone of the market. Put writing is intact at immediate strikes which could provide support to the market on declines.
Fx Technical
By Mr. Kishore Narne, Head – Currency & Commodities, MOFSL
USD/INR Status: Current rally is likely to continue in the short-term!
CMP: 74.01, Target: 74.65, Stop Loss: 73.40
Trade: The current up move for the pair is likely to continue in the short-term targeting 74.65. Dip around 73.80 will be a good buying opportunity. Support is placed at 73.40
GBPUSD Status: The pair looks to trade with negative bias in short-term!
CMP: 1.3820, Target: 1.3635, Stop Loss: 1.4025
Trade: The pair is likely to continue its weakness in the short-term and selling on rise around 1.39 is advised targeting 1.3635 mark. But our bias will negate if price break above 1.4025
Commodity Calls:
By Amit Sajeja, VP- Commodities, MOFSL
