Data showed the scrip has fallen over 1 per cent on seven occasions while it has risen over 1 per cent on three occasions. The other two AGM days were uneventful for the scrip.
The biggest AGM reaction on the RIL counter was seen in 2019. The AGM that year was held on August 12, 2019, a Monday but a public holiday on account of Bakri Id.
The next day, the scrip rallied 9.72 per cent to Rs 1,262.98 tracking the announcement of Saudi Aramco’s 20 per cent investment in RIL’s oil-to-chemical business, and on Reliance’s road map to becoming a zero-debt company.
The worst AGM day return for Reliance Industries was July 15 last year, when the scrip fell 3.71 per cent to Rs 1,845.60. The scrip fell on profit-taking following announcements of Rs 33,737 crore Google deal and make-in India 5G offerings, among others.
ETMarkets.comNotable falls for RIL on AGM days included September 1, 2016’s 2.73 per cent fall, July 5, 2018’s 2.53 per cent drop and June 18, 2014’s 2.21 per cent decline. Notable gains included June 12, 2015’s 1.36 per cent rise and June 7, 2012’s 0.92 per cent rise.
That said, the RIL stock has usually performed well in the run-up to AGMs.
“Over the past 10 years, in the week and month post the AGMs, the stock has outperformed the Nifty 6/10 and 7/10 times, potentially implying that the speech managed to give more confidence,” said HSBC.
HSBC said the stock has seen an average surge of 140 per cent in trading value on its AGM days compared to the volumes traded a month prior to the AGM.
At 27 per cent, the RIL stock has underperformed Sensex’s 48 per cent return in the last one year, largely due to lack of news flow in the last couple of months.
Deepak Jasani of HDFC Securities said that the RIL scrip had a phase of outperformance last year during March and September 2020, led by a series of new flows. “You cannot expect the scrip to outperform every time, especially with such a huge market cap. There would surely be a period of consolidation. People are waiting for the next big trigger.” Jasani said.
Jasani said the RIL seems to have encountered a temporary plateauing in three of four core businesses.
“Expectations have built up and Mr Ambani would surely hint at a few initiatives but big announcements may not be made at AGM. I believe AGM may not be the right platform,” Jasani said.
So far investors are keenly awaiting Thursday’s AGM to get cues on the roadmap for 5G rollout and the launch of affordable 5G phone and low-cost laptop JioBook. They also want to hear about arrangements with Saudi Aramco in O2C business and updates on the retail business.
