The wholesale price index is expected to continue to grow in double-digits, at 10.71% from a year during the July-September quarter, up from the previous forecast of 10.12%, before slowing to 9.13% in the last quarter of the calendar year, according to the survey. Economists also upgraded their outlooks for consumer inflation to 5.7% and 5.2%, respectively, for the final two quarters of 2021.
Forecasts for gross domestic product were raised to a 9.2% expansion in the fiscal year ending March 2022, from the previous 9%, while the gross value added outlook edged down slightly to 9%.
Headline inflation will stay above the RBI’s 4% target, said Bernard Aw, head of Asia-Pacific economics at Coface in Singapore. “Should CPI remain persistent at current elevated rates, and stay around or above the top end of the 2%-6% target band, we don’t rule out a hike as early as January-March 2022.”
Indian monetary policy makers have maintained that the country’s current inflation is due to supply-side problems and won’t persist, while they focus resources on an economic rebound.
