Gold Oct is stuck in a consolidation pattern ahead of this week’s US jobs data. Gold witnessed a decline towards the lower end of the consolidation range on Tuesday. The immediate support is seen near its 50-day EMA at Rs 47,680, followed by Rs 47,450. Resistance exists around Rs 48,150, followed by Rs 48,500. The momentum indicator RSI is hovering around 50 (52), suggesting a sideways trend. So for the day, the price is expected to remain in the range of Rs 47,680-Rs 48,150 with a sideways bias. Only a close below Rs 47,680 would extend the weakness and price would slip towards Rs 47,450.
Trading Range: Rs 47,680-48,150
MCX SILVER Sep futures moved sideways on Tuesday, consolidating in the middle of last week’s range. The price is now hovering near its key resistance zone of Rs 68,500, a move above would confirm the reversal in price trend for a rally towards Rs 68,900. Meanwhile, the strength index (RSI) is hovering near 50 (48), suggesting a sideways trend. A sustained move above 50 in RSI would strengthen the bull case. For the near term, Rs 66,500 and Rs 65,800 hold key support levels, while Rs 68,900 and 69,750 are key resistance points. So for the day, the price is expected to move in the range of Rs 66,500-68,900 with a sideways bias. Only a sustained move above Rs 68,900 would bring fresh buying and push it towards Rs 69,750.
Trading Range: Rs 66,500-68,900
By Tapan Patel
Commodity prices traded mixed on Wednesday with most of the commodities in non-agro segment under pressure. Bullion prices kept a narrow trading range on mixed global cues while crude oil prices trading weak on demand growth worries. Base metals declined on Covid worries and weak manufacturing data from US. Here is a look at how different commodities are behaving in today’s market.
Outlook: Bullion
Bullion prices traded firm on Wednesday with spot gold prices at COMEX were trading near $1813 per ounce while spot silver prices at COMEX were trading marginal up at $25.61 per ounce in the morning trade. The precious metals kept steady trading range with lower volumes on mixed global cues. The rising worries over spreading Delta variant cases has capped downside in bullion while traders and investors are cautious ahead of US job market report. We expect bullion prices to trade sideways to up for the day.
Trading Strategy: MCX Gold October resistance for the day lies at Rs 48,200 per 10 gram with support at Rs 47,700 per 10 gram. MCX Silver September support lies at Rs 66,800 per kg, resistance at Rs 69,200 per kg.
Outlook: Crude Oil
Crude oil prices traded weak on Wednesday with benchmark NYMEX WTI crude oil trading marginally down near $70.44 per barrel in morning trade. Crude oil prices traded down for the third day in a row on demand growth worries. Crude oil prices witnessed selling from the start of the week on weaker demand outlook on spreading Delta variant cases. The rising numbers of COVID-19 cases in the US and China, the top two oil importers globally, are clouding the fuel demand outlook. We expect crude oil prices to trade sideways to down for the day.
Trading Strategy: MCX Crude Oil August support lies at Rs 5,170 per barrel with resistance at Rs 5,280 per barrel.
Outlook: Base Metals
Base metals prices traded steady on Wednesday with most of the metals under pressure. Base metals traded lower on weaker demand outlook followed by slower manufacturing growth. The fall in steel prices pressured Zinc to trade weak for the day. China is facing a surge in virus cases which may dampen the demand outlook for base metals. Base metals may trade sideways to down for the day.
Trading Strategy: MCX Copper August support lies at Rs 732 and resistance at Rs 740. MCX Zinc August support lies at Rs 242, resistance at Rs 248. MCX Nickel August support lies at Rs 1,450 with resistance at Rs 1,480.
(Tapan Patel is Senior Analyst, Commodities, HDFC Securities)
