The Chief Economist, South East Asia and India at ANZ Bank, has a contrarian view.
In a chat with ETMarkets.com, Sanjay Mathur, a veteran economist, said the need of the hour is not capital spending that generates long-term gains. “Rather, what is important now and for years to come, is to lift people out of poverty, as that would have a larger impact on the economy,” he said.
“Let me take a controversial stand here. Our thinking on the fiscal has become somewhat stereotyped – capital spending is good and revenue spending is bad. And for FY22, the focus has been on capital spending. But the nature of the current crisis is different: it is a humanitarian crisis that calls for more massive welfare measures. A large section of our population has slipped into poverty, income and wealth disparities are rising,” Mathur said.
The government and RBI have unveiled various spending schemes since the pandemic struck last year; the flagship programme being the ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ scheme, which essentially prioritises import substitution.
However, out of the Rs 20 lakh crore announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the actual fiscal outgo is very small. A bulk of the programmes are reflective of RBI’s liquidity infusion in the banking system, while the rest are mostly credit guarantees.
One cannot exactly blame the government, as its finances have been under strain since well before the pandemic.
In the last Budget, the government put aside the prescriptions of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act and announced a fiscal deficit of 6.8 per cent of GDP for this financial year. The Centre had earlier set a target of 3.0 per cent fiscal deficit by 2017-18 (Apr-Mar).
However, it will not be accurate to say that the entire strain was on account of the pandemic. A year before Covid-19 wreaked havoc on the economy, the government had already skipped the targets it had set for itself under the FRBM Act, as tax collections fell short of targets.
Mathur said the government and the central bank together have done what they could within their constraints. “There was very little fiscal headroom to start with,” he said.
“So while I do acknowledge that asset creation has a larger multiplier on growth, this crisis is also unique and requires a different response,” he added.
