Just looking at SBI’s performance, the big takeaway from the numbers is the asset quality outcome, the fact that they have managed to brave the Covid-19 second wave impact. Slippages have come in at 2.47%, of which, a significant amount has already been pulled back in July. Do you think that is something that is going down well with the street?
It is absolutely right because going into the quarter, the economic backdrop had the services economy still in a contraction while the manufacturing sector was moving by stops and starts. There was a fear that slippages would increase from industries that take loans from SBI.
Now those slippages are under control. The 15,600 odd crore mark is a good number. Secondly, we know that credit growth is unlikely to pick up any time soon. The number reflects that 5% to 6% range whereas the deposit growth continues to remain strong. SBI’s credit costs have come down and it looks like SBI has executed well, given the tough macro environment. The Covid related provisionings are largely within expectation and gives comfort that numbers for other banks will also hopefully be in line or better.
Would a long-term investor be willing to buy the stock at the current levels?
Absolutely. The stock at the current levels still trades only at about close to its book value around one time for the medium to longer term investor. For a franchise as strong and big as SBI, one in four or five loans in this country is made by SBI.
Today whether it is corporate banking, retail banking or the government borrowings from banks, SBI has executed well. So even without multiple re-rating, the stock can go much higher. At this current rate it will probably hit north of Rs 600 in less than about a year’s time from now.
What are your views on HDFC Ltd?
After long underperformance due to slowing loan growth etc, hopefully things will improve for HDFC if there is no third wave. Also coming out of the current lockdowns, home loan growth rates are picking up while other forms of borrowing or lending has still not picked up. That is reflected both in the volumes of real estate companies as well as by the housing finance companies. I think given its underperformance, HDFC being the market leader along with LIC Housing and Repco, could do well in the next couple of quarters
