Gold futures moved lower on Wednesday as price resisted to move beyond its 200-day EMA at Rs 47,600. Gold price inched close to its key support zone at Rs 47,020-47,000 after breaching the intermediate support of 20-day EMA at Rs 47,240. It is expected to consolidate in the broad range of Rs 47,000-47,750 ahead of Fed comments at Jackson Hole Symposium. If gold moves below the lower band of the range, then it would move down towards Rs 46,750-46,600 zone. On the momentum front, RSI is hovering around the neutral zone (50) at 49, suggesting a sideways trend. So for the day, the price is expected to move in the range of Rs 47,000-47,750 with a sideways bias. Only a close above Rs 47,750 would bring fresh buying interest in gold futures.
Trading Range: Rs 47,000-47,750
MCX Silver futures moved in a narrow range on Wednesday. For now the 20-day EMA (Rs 64,200) would be the key resistance, a break above which would attract buyers. On the lower front, Rs 62,600 and Rs 62,100 hold key supports for the day. The short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated crossover buy signal. On the RSI front, positive divergence on the short-term chart has also supported the recovery in price. As long as Rs 62,100 holds, the price is expected to move towards Rs 64,200. Only a sustained move above Rs 64,200 would bring fresh buying interest in silver and push it towards Rs 65,500.
Trading Strategy: Buy MCX Silver Sep at Rs 62,700. Target price: Rs 64,200. Stop loss: Rs 62,000
(Ravindra Rao is CMT, EPAT, VP-Head Commodity Research, Kotak Securities Ltd. Views are his own)
Tapan Patel
Here is a look at how different commodities are behaving in today’s market.
Outlook: Bullion
Bullion prices traded steady on Thursday with spot gold prices at COMEX flat near $1,789 per ounce while spot silver prices at COMEX were marginally down at $23.78 per ounce in morning trade. The precious metals traded under pressure ahead of Jackson Hole Symposium where market will try to get cues on asset tapering and interest rates change. The dollar index traded firm which also added pressure on bullion. We expect bullion prices to trade sideways to down for the day on mixed global cues.
Trading Strategy: MCX Gold October resistance for the day lies at Rs 47,500 per 10 gram with support at Rs 46,800 per 10 gram. MCX Silver September support lies at Rs 61,800 per kg, resistance at Rs 64,500 per kg.
Outlook: Crude Oil
Crude oil prices traded lower on Thursday with benchmark NYMEX WTI crude oil prices trading 0.78 per cent down near $67.83 per barrel in morning trade. Crude oil prices traded weak on renewed Covid worries over rising Delta variant cases which may lower fuel demand outlook for the year. Crude oil prices may cap downside with drawdown in weekly inventories as the US EIA data showed crude inventories fell by 3 million barrels for the week ended Aug. 20. We expect crude oil prices to trade sideways to down for the day.
Trading Strategy: MCX Crude Oil September support lies at Rs 4,930 per barrel with resistance at Rs 5,080 per barrel.
Outlook: Base Metals
Base metals traded under pressure on stronger dollar and Fed tapering concerns. Easing of Covid worries from China has supported base metals to trade firm. However, fast spreading cases in other parts of the world has raised concerns over economic recovery. Base metals prices may trade in range ahead of Fed symposium and stronger dollar. Base metals may trade sideways to down for the day.
Trading Strategy: MCX Copper September support lies at Rs 708 and resistance at Rs 717. MCX Zinc September support lies at Rs 243, resistance at Rs 250. MCX Nickel September support lies at Rs 1,410 with resistance at Rs 1,460.
(Tapan Patel is Senior Analyst, Commodities, HDFC Securities. Views are his own)
