Gold futures closed slightly lower on Thursday but remained in a sideways range ahead of today’s non-farm payroll report. The yellow metal is hovering inside a major retracement zone of Rs 46,750 to Rs 47,350, suggesting a consolidation phase. Above Rs 47,350, the key resistance holds near Rs 47,600 (200-day EMA). The medium-term momentum turned positive as the MACD index generated a crossover buy signal. However, RSI is hovering around the neutral zone (50) at 45, suggesting a sideways trend. So for the day, the price is expected to move in the range of Rs 46,750-Rs 47,600 with a sideways bias. Only a close above Rs 47,600 would bring fresh buying interest in gold futures.
Trading Range: Rs 46,750-47,600
MCX Silver futures also edged lower and continued to remain rangebound. Price trend has not changed much as Dec futures are still hovering below the key resistance of 20-day EMA at Rs 64,600. Similarly, Rs 62,900 and Rs 62,400 would act as key support zone for the day. Below Rs 62,400, it might head towards the next support at Rs 61,500. On the RSI front, a positive divergence on the short-term chart has supported the recovery in price. So as long as Rs 62,400 holds, the price is expected to move towards Rs 64,600. Only a sustained move above Rs 64,600 would bring fresh buying interest and push silver price towards Rs 65,500.
Trading Strategy: Buy MCX Silver Dec at Rs 63,000. Target price: Rs 64,600. Stop loss: Rs 62,200
(Ravindra Rao is CMT , EPAT, VP-Head Commodity Research, Kotak Securities Ltd. Views are his own)
Tapan Patel
Here is a look at how different commodities are behaving in today’s market.
Outlook: Bullion
Bullion prices traded firm on Friday with spot gold prices at COMEX marginally up near $1,812 per ounce while spot silver prices at COMEX flat near $23.91 per ounce in morning trade. The precious metals are trading in a narrow trading range this week ahead of key US employment data. The US non-farm payroll data will be released today evening which may shake global markets, causing some volatility. The dollar index was trading flat on mixed global cues. We expect bullion prices to trade sideways to up for the day.
Trading Strategy:
MCX Gold October resistance for the day lies at Rs 47,400 per 10 gram with support at Rs 46,800 per 10 gram. MCX Silver December support lies at Rs 62,500 per kg, resistance at Rs 65,000 per kg.
Outlook: Crude Oil
Crude oil prices traded weak on Friday with benchmark NYMEX WTI crude oil prices down by 0.23% to $69.83 per barrel in morning trade. Crude oil prices pared some of previous gains on Friday ahead of key US data. Earlier, crude oil prices rallied on higher demand for oil products and lower output due to power shortage post Hurricane Ida. US oil rigs are resuming operations at a slower than expected pace which has supported higher oil prices. We expect crude oil prices to trade sideways to up for the day.
Trading Strategy: MCX Crude Oil September support lies at Rs 5,020 per barrel with resistance at Rs 5,170 per barrel.
Outlook: Base Metals
Base metals prices traded mixed in morning trade with positive openings in aluminium, copper and zinc. Zinc prices rose with gains in iron ore prices while copper got boost form expectations of stimulus measures from China. Aluminium prices rallied to ten-year highs amid China’s crackdown on smelters to curb carbon emission. Base metals got support from weaker dollar, which is hovering near one-month lows. Base metals may trade sideways to up for the day.
Trading Strategy: MCX Copper September support lies at Rs 708 and resistance at Rs 720. MCX Zinc September support lies at Rs 242 and resistance at Rs 248. MCX Aluminium September support lies at Rs 211 with resistance at Rs and 216.
(Tapan Patel is Senior Analyst, Commodities, HDFC Securities. Views are his own)
