Gold futures reversed its gains on Tuesday as it failed to breach the key resistance at Rs 47,600. Suggesting a possible correction, price dipped below the 20-day EMA support at Rs 47,250. The Bollinger band analysis on the daily charts suggests a consolidation phase as price is hovering around the midline of the band. The support holds around Rs 46,750, followed by Rs 46,500 (-2 SD). On the flipside, Rs 47,600 (200-DEMA) acts as a crucial resistance zone. RSI is not indicating any clear direction as it is hovering around the neutral zone of 50 (46), suggesting a sideways trend. So for the day, the price is expected to move in the range of Rs 46,750-47,600 with a sideways bias. Only a close above Rs 47,600 would bring fresh buying interest in gold futures.
Trading Range: Rs 46,750-47,600
MCX Silver futures fell the most on Tuesday as it faced stiff resistance at its 50-DEMA at Rs 65,550 and dipped towards the 8-DEMA support at Rs 64,200, which has limited the downside. On the upside, a trade through 50-DEMA would push it towards the key resistance of Rs 66,000 (200-DEMA). On the downside, a move below Rs 64,200 would extend the fall in price towards the next key supports of Rs 63,200- 62,900 zones. On the momentum front, RSI is hovering near 50, suggesting a sideways trend. So in the near-term, the price seems to be consolidating in the band of Rs 64,200-65,500. Only a sustained move above Rs 65,500 would bring fresh buying interest in silver futures.
Trading Range: Rs 64,200-65,500
(Ravindra Rao is CMT, EPAT, VP-Head Commodity Research, Kotak Securities Ltd. Views are his own)
Tapan Patel
Here is a look at how different commodities are behaving in today’s market.
Outlook: Bullion
Bullion prices traded steady on Wednesday with spot gold prices at COMEX up 0.22% near $1,798 per ounce while spot silver prices at flat near $24.33 per ounce in morning trade. The precious metals witnessed some recovery paring some previous losses. Bullion prices traded under pressure with a stronger dollar and rise in US bond yields. The dollar index rose to one-week high near 92.55, while 10-year US Treasury yields rose to 1.385%. Market players will eye Fed’s Beige Book tonight to get clues on the growth of US economy. Bullion prices may trade sideways to down for the day on stronger dollar.
Trading Strategy: MCX Gold October resistance for the day lies at Rs 47,300 per 10 gram with support at Rs 46,800 per 10 gram. MCX Silver December support lies at Rs 63,500 per kg and resistance at Rs 66,200 per kg.
Outlook: Crude Oil
Crude oil prices traded firm on Wednesday with benchmark NYMEX WTI crude oil prices up 0.29% near $68.55 per barrel in morning trade. Crude oil prices recovered from previous loses as producers in the US Gulf of Mexico are still struggling to restart operations nine days after Hurricane Ida swept through the region with powerful winds and drenching rain. About 79% of US Gulf production remained offline on Tuesday, with 79 production platforms still unoccupied. We expect crude oil prices to trade sideways to up for the day.
Trading Strategy: MCX Crude Oil September support lies at Rs 4,960 per barrel with resistance at Rs 5,120 per barrel.
Outlook: Base Metals
Base metals prices traded firm in morning trade with most of the metals opening positive on Wednesday. Gains were capped on stronger dollar which lowered the appetite for commodities. Base metals may trade sideways to up for the day.
Trading Strategy: MCX Copper September support lies at Rs 708 and resistance at Rs 716. MCX Zinc September support lies at Rs 246, resistance at Rs 251. MCX Aluminium September support lies at Rs 216 with resistance at Rs 221.
(Tapan Patel is Senior Analyst, Commodities, HDFC Securities)
