MCX Gold futures edged higher on Wednesday, after reversing its losses from the key resistance turned support zone of Rs 47,600-47,550. Additional support for price holds around Rs 47,380 (200-DEMA), followed by Rs 47,100. On the upside, Rs 48,300 holds key resistance for Dec futures, followed by Rs 48,500. Price has to move above Rs 48,500 to bring the bulls back into the action and push it towards Rs 49,000. Negative divergence in RSI might limit the upside in price. So in the near-term, the price is expected to move in the range of Rs 47,550-48,500 with a sideways bias. Only a close below Rs 47,550 would change the trend and weaken the price towards Rs 47,380 followed by Rs 47,100.
Trading Range: Rs 47,550-Rs 48,500
MCX Silver futures moved higher, bouncing from the support seen near the 10-day EMA at Rs 64,700. Resistance for the price exists near Rs 66,800, which could be the target resistance for the day. The bullish crossover of 10- and 50- DEMA has supported the recovery. The intermediate trend channel is bullish as price is still hovering inside the rising trend channel along with bullish cross over of 10- and 50-DEMA. Additional support for price below Rs 64,700 holds around Rs 63,800 (20-DEMA). On the oscillator front, short-term momentum turned negative as the fast stochastics generated a crossover sell signal. On the other hand, MACD is still hovering above the midline suggesting bullishness in the trend. So in the near term, the price is expected to dip towards the key support zone of Rs 63,800, if held then it would again rebound and test the key resistance zone of Rs 66,800. From the above analysis, we expect the price to trade in the range of Rs 63,800-66,800 with a sideways bias. A closing above Rs 66,800 would bring renewed buying interest.
Trading Range: Rs 63,800-66,800
(Ravindra Rao is CMT, EPAT, VP-Head Commodity Research, Kotak Securities Ltd. Views are his own)
Tapan Patel
Here is a look at how different commodities are behaving in today’s market.
Outlook: Bullion
Bullion prices traded firm on Thursday with spot gold prices at COMEX up 0.24% near $1,801 per ounce. Spot silver prices at COMEX rose by 0.31% near $24.07 per ounce in morning trade. Bullion prices recovered, paring previous loses with lower US bond yields and mixed global cues. Bullion prices are fluctuating ahead of ECB policy meeting. The 10-year US Treasury yields were trading near 1.55%. Bullion prices may trade sideways to up for the day.
Trading Strategy: MCX Gold December resistance for the day lies at Rs 48,200 per 10 gram with support at Rs 47,700 per 10 gram. MCX Silver December support lies at Rs 63,800 per kg, resistance at Rs 66,500 per kg.
Outlook: Crude Oil
Crude oil prices traded lower on Wednesday. benchmark NYMEX WTI crude oil prices fell by 1.67% to $81.28 per barrel in the morning trade. Crude oil prices traded lower with rise in weekly inventories and China assurance of coal supply. The US EIA data showed that crude oil stockpiles rose by 4.26 mb in last week against forecast of 1.91 mb. We expect crude oil prices to trade sideways to down for the day.
Trading Strategy: MCX Crude Oil November support lies at Rs 6,040 per barrel with resistance at Rs 6,180 per barrel.
Outlook: Base Metals
Base metals prices traded mixed on Thursday. Most of the metals kept steady trading range in the morning trade. Base metals traded under pressure on easing worries over power shortage in China after state planner assured to restore coal supply. Aluminum fell to the lowest level in two months on expectations that power supply disruptions and spiraling costs will ease following China’s plans to cap coal prices to resolve electricity crunch. Base metals may trade sideways to down for the day.
Trading Strategy: MCX Copper November support lies at Rs 742 and resistance at Rs 754. MCX Zinc November support lies at Rs 278, resistance at Rs 285. MCX Aluminium November support lies at Rs 207 with resistance at Rs 216.
(Tapan Patel is Senior Analyst, Commodities, HDFC Securities. Views are his own)
