The management commentary around growth outlook, NIM trajectory and repayment in wholesale loan portfolio will be keenly watched.
ICICI Securities expects HDFC to post a healthy growth in earnings, led by improving traction in real estate sales. It sees the mortgage lender posting a 29.4 per cent YoY rise in net profit at Rs 3,715 crore on a 21.1 per cent YoY rise in net interest income at Rs 4,200.40 crore. The brokerage sees HDFC’s asset under management (AUM) rising 10 per cent YoY to Rs 5,09,130 crore, with major traction in the retail portfolio.
“Gradual improvement is seen in margins at 2.9 per cent. Dividend income reported at Rs 1,171 crore will boost other income. With provision expected to decline sequentially at Rs 550 crore, earnings are seen growing at 29 per cent YoY to Rs 3,715 crore. Repayment in the wholesale loan portfolio will be watched,” ICICI Securities said.
Nomura India sees HDFC’s profit at Rs 3,693 crore, up 30.8 per cent. It sees NIM at 3.01 per cent in September quarter from 3.02 per cent in June quarter and 2.81 per cent in the year-ago quarter. NII is seen at Rs 4,181 crore, up 14.6 per cent.
“We are building in 3 per cent QoQ loan growth (9 per cent YoY) on strong traction in the individual book and growth recovering in the non-core segment. NIMs will marginally decline sequentially and the benefit of higher yielding corporate book will only come with a lag. We expect credit cost to reduce sequentially given strong provision buffers build and lower asset quality impact,” Nomura said.
Elara Securities sees profit for HDFC growing 27.8 per cent at Rs 36,68.90 crore while Motilal Oswal Securities sees profit growing 33.3 per cent at Rs 3,826 crore. NII is seen rising 12.8 per cent to Rs 4,064 crore.
“AUM growth is likely to remain healthy at around 9 per cent. Strong disbursements in individual loans, with renewed traction in non-Individual loans is likely. But margin to contract sequentially due to moderation in blended yields,” it said.
