The benchmark indices witnessed extreme volatility with the Nifty/Sensex trading near its 50-day SMA or 14,736/49,963 support level. Today, the Nifty/Sensex opened with a 130/360 points positive gap, but once again bears took the charge and due to constant profit booking, it corrected over 390/1,330 points from the days high.
On the domestic front, IT, pharma and PSU banks witnessed selling pressure whereas buying was seen in ITC,
and selective metal stocks. We are of the view that the bears are still in total control, but the intraday chart shows a temporary pause near 14,500/48,900 levels. Hence, bears may prefer to take a caution stance near 50-day SMA.
Technically, the index still maintains lower high and lower low series, which suggests medium-term weakness. However, on the intraday charts, the index is in the oversold zone and is expected to trade near 50-day SMA for the next few trading sessions at 14,750/49,963 levels that would be a sacrosanct level. Trading below the same, a correction wave is likely to continue till 14,450-1,4460/48,890-48,700. On the flip side, 14,750/49,963 could be the immediate hurdle. If it manages to sustain above the same, we can expect a quick relief rally up to 14,850-14,900/50,100-50,300 levels.
Tech Picks
Analyst: Shrikant Chouhan, Executive Vice President – Technical Research
Hindustan Unilever: BUY
CMP: Rs 2,215.2
Target: Rs 2,280
Stop loss: Rs 2,180
The stock is into a rising trend channel, forming higher high and higher low series on the daily chart backed by a decent volume activity.
HDFC Life: BUY
CMP: Rs 680.85
Target: Rs 700
Stop loss: Rs 670
A reversal expected from the important support zone on the daily chart as the previous move specifies every decline in stock is bought into by the bulls.
JSW Steel: BUY
CMP: Rs 423.15
Target: Rs 435
Stop loss: Rs 415
A bullish continuation chart formation is evident on the daily chart with incremental volume activity.
Federal Bank: SELL
CMP: Rs 77.75
Target: Rs 75
Stop loss: Rs 79
The stock is into a bearish channel and closing below 50 day SMA indicates that further downside movement may continue in the near term.
F&O Strategy
Analyst: Sahaj Agrawal, Head of Research- Derivatives
Futures: SELL Glenmark Futures March at 460
Stop loss: 480
Target: 430
Support Trendline breakdown seen below 463 on spot.
Options: Nifty Long Call
Buy 14,700CE at 130
Stop loss: 70
Target: 230
Nifty yesterday saw a strong sell-off after a gap-up opening and re-tested the recent swing low of 14,467. However, this would qualify as a counter-trend move in the ongoing uptrend. Unless the previous swing low is breached, the chances of a rally back to 14,900 is high before expiry.
Forex & Interest Rate Technical
Analyst: Anindya Banerjee, DVP, Currency Derivatives & Interest Rate Derivatives
USD-INR April 28th expiry:
Buy 72.50 Put option & Sell 73.50 Put option. Premium received @ 4 paise.
Stop loss: Exit strategy if USD-INR April futures trades above 73.43.
Target: Open
Commodity Calls
Analyst: Ravindra Rao, VP – Head Commodity Research
| Commodity | Exchange | Strategy |
| Gold (Apr) | MCX | Buy at 44600/44500; TP: 45300/45500; SL: 44150 |
| Crude Oil (Apr) | MCX | Sell at 4770/4790; TP: 4620/4600; SL: 4850 |
| Copper (Mar) | MCX | Sell at 680/681 TP 670/668 SL 685 |
| Soyoil (Apr) | NCDEX | Sell at 1260/1265 TP 1230/1220 SL 1278 |
