Nifty Outlook: Monday, April 12, 2021
Nifty index opened flattish and remained consolidative since its opening trade on Friday. It breached its previous day’s low but didn’t sustain at lower levels. It formed a Doji candle with long lower shadow on weekly while a small Bearish candle on daily scale indicating buying at lower zones. Now, it has to decisively cross and hold above 14880 zone for an up move towards 15000 and 15100 zones while on the downside support exists at 14750 and 14650 levels.
Stocks (spot levels) :
Tata Consumer
Recommendation: Buy
CMP: Rs 679
Target: Rs 710
Stop loss: Rs 663
Studies: Breakout on weekly frame and surpassed its previous hurdle.
IGL
Recommendation: Buy
CMP: Rs 542
Target: Rs 565
Stop Loss: Rs 530
Studies: Price volume breakout on daily scale and came out of its range surpassing 50 DMA
Tata Elxsi
Recommendation: Buy
CMP: Rs 3101
Target: Rs 3220
Stop Loss: Rs 3040
Studies: Pole and flag breakout on weekly frame and higher highs on daily scale. Price has crossed previous hurdle of Rs 3050 and ready to trade in a new territory/
Bajaj Finance
Recommendation: Sell
CMP: Rs 4,872
Target: Rs 4665
Stop Loss: Rs 4975
Studies: Lower highs on weekly frame and weakness to continue till previous support zones.
Derivatives
India VIX fell down by 2.58% from 20.31 to 19.78 levels. Lower volatility and a hold below 20 zones could continue to keep buy on declines strategy in the market. On option front, Maximum Put OI is at 14000 followed by 14500 strike while maximum Call OI is at 15000 followed by 16000 strike. Minor Call writing is seen at 15000 then 15200 strike while minor Put writing is seen at 14800 strike. Option data suggests a wider trading range in between 14500 to 15200 zones.
Bank Nifty opened negative and remained negative to range bound for most part of the session on Friday. Banking stocks are witnessing weakness and dragged the index to 32300 levels. It finally concluded with losses of around 330 points. It formed a Bearish candle on weekly as well as daily scale. Long upper shadows during the day indicates selling pressure at higher zones. Now till it remains below 33333 zones, weakness could continue for the downside move towards 32000 and 31500 zones while on the upside hurdles are seen at 33000 and 33333-33500 zones.
NIFTY : BULL CALL SPREAD : +14900 CE – 15050 CE (April 15, 2021)
Buy 1 lot of 14900 call @ 103
Sell 1 lot of 15050 call @ 45
Net premium paid: 58 points
Keep SL of net premium of 18 oints: Risk of 40 points
Keep target of net premium of 145 points: Reward of 87 points
Rationale
Major trend is positive and declines are being bought again
India VIX has cooled down with rise in Put Call Ratio indicates overall bullish undertone of the market
Put writing is intact at lower strikes which could provide support
Fx Technical
By Kishore Narne, MOFSL
USD/INR Status: Positive move is likely to continue in coming sessions!
CMP: 74.80
Target: 75.50
Stop Loss: 73.90
Trade: Overall bias looks positive for the pair and initial dip towards 74.50 will be a good buying opportunity. The counter is likely to target 75.50. Our bias will negate if price break below 73.90
Commodity Calls:
Amit Sajeja, MOFSL
