MCX Gold futures failed to capitalize its gains and witnessed a decline on Monday. The appreciation of the rupee against the dollar has limited the upside in gold. Its resistance of 200-day EMA at Rs 47,600 is still in place, followed by resistance of previous top near Rs 47,750. The downside support holds around Rs 46,800. On the momentum front, RSI is hovering around the neutral zone (50) at 49, suggesting a sideways trend. So for the day, the price is expected to move in the range of Rs 46,800-47,600 with a sideways bias. Only a close above Rs 47,750 would bring fresh buying interest in gold futures.
Trading Range: Rs 46,800-47,600
MCX Silver futures moved lower on Monday following the rally seen on Friday. Meanwhile, the price is still trading below the key resistance of 20-day EMA at Rs 64,700, which could act as an immediate hurdle for the day. On the lower front, Rs 62,900 and Rs 62,500 holds key supports for the day. The bullish crossover of MACD above its 9-day average has supported the bullish view. On the RSI front, positive divergence on the short-term chart has also supported the recovery in price. So as long as Rs 62,500 holds, price is expected to move towards Rs 64,700. Only a sustained move above Rs 64,700 would bring fresh buying interest and push silver towards Rs 65,500.
Trading Strategy: Buy MCX Silver Dec at Rs 63,200. Target price: Rs 64,700. Stop loss: Rs 62,400
(Ravindra Rao is CMT , EPAT, VP-Head Commodity Research, Kotak Securities Ltd. Views are his own)
Tapan Patel
Commodity prices traded mixed on Monday with bullion prices under pressure on mixed global cues. Base metals kept a firm trading range on a positive demand outlook. Crude oil prices managed to end in the green, limiting upside as market evaluates the drilling refinery operations at Gulf of Mexico post hurricane Ida. Here is a look at how different commodities are behaving in today’s market.
Outlook: Bullion
Bullion prices traded firm on Tuesday with spot gold prices at COMEX marginally up near $1,815 per ounce while spot silver prices at COMEX were trading flat near $24.05 per ounce in morning trade. The precious metals traded off the recent highs paring some previous gains. Traders and investors will now try to gauge Fed mood from upcoming US data after the Jackson Hole meet. The weak Chinese data may support gold prices while silver prices may limit upside on weak industrial metals. We expect bullion prices to trade sideways to up for the day.
Trading Strategy: MCX Gold October resistance for the day lies at Rs 47,600 per 10 gram with support at Rs 46,900 per 10 gram. MCX Silver December support lies at Rs 61,800 per kg, resistance at Rs 65,000 per kg.
Outlook: Crude Oil
Crude oil prices traded weak on Tuesday with benchmark NYMEX WTI crude oil prices trading 0.46% down near $68.86 per barrel in morning trade. Crude oil prices traded under pressure on restored operations at Gulf of Mexico as crude producers are expected to gradually resume service after hurricane Ida. Crude oil prices got additional selling ahead of OPEC plus meeting this week where it is expected to boost supply by a further 400,000 barrels per day on a bright demand outlook. We expect crude oil prices to trade sideways to down for the day.
Trading Strategy:
Crude Oil September support lies at Rs 4,970 per barrel with resistance at Rs 5,130 per barrel.
Outlook: Base Metals
Base metals traded mixed with most of the metals in lower trading range on Tuesday. Base metals traded under pressure following weak China data. China’s official manufacturing PMI declined for August at 50.1 against previous 50.4 while service PMI fell to 47.5 down from 53.3 in July. Base metals may get some support from a weaker dollar for the day, limiting downside. Base metals may trade sideways to down for the day.
Trading Strategy: MCX Copper September support lies at Rs 715 and resistance at Rs 725. MCX Zinc September support lies at Rs 243, resistance at Rs 248. MCX Nickel September support lies at Rs 1,430 with resistance at Rs 1,470.
(Tapan Patel- Senior Analyst, Commodities, HDFC Securities. Views are his own)
